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Bitcoin's price faces pressure following the Federal Reserve's recent statements, with a target of $60,000 in sight. The Fed's minutes revealed no commitment to a specific pace for future rate cuts, despite a recent reduction of 50 basis points. Investors are now looking to upcoming US inflation data for further direction.
Silver prices remain above $30 as investors anticipate a decline in US inflation. The upcoming Fed minutes and new inflation data are crucial for understanding future monetary policy, with an 86.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut predicted for November 7. A drop below the $30 mark could intensify downward pressure on prices.
US share markets faced pressure from escalating Middle East tensions and anticipation of the September payrolls report, while the ASX 200 reached a record high before declining. Key economic indicators showed mixed results, with stronger job openings and a rise in crude oil prices, while inflation in the euro area eased and China's manufacturing PMI fell. Upcoming key dates include the RBA meeting minutes and US inflation data, as markets brace for potential shifts in monetary policy.
In July, small caps outperformed despite tightening presidential race odds, as US short rates rose more than long rates, signaling a potential rate-cutting cycle. Political factors had limited impact on market trends, which were primarily driven by fundamentals and technical conditions, leading to a favorable cyclical outlook supported by strong GDP growth and easing monetary policy. However, increased volatility is expected in August and September, prompting a cautious reduction in equity exposure.
US non-farm payrolls are expected to add 148,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate likely holding steady at 4.2%. Despite recent softer job data, a range of 120,000 to 180,000 job additions could indicate economic normalization rather than distress. The US dollar may stabilize, influenced by labor market resilience and geopolitical tensions, though caution remains due to high net-short positioning against G10 currencies.
Jerome Powell indicated that if the economy continues as expected, there could be two more rate cuts totaling 50 bps by year-end, but markets anticipate a 75 bps cut. This week's employment data, including JOLTS and ADP figures, will be crucial in shaping the Fed's rate cut trajectory and market expectations. Strong employment figures may lead to a reassessment of rate cut expectations, potentially strengthening US rates and the dollar, which could pose challenges for equity markets.
UBS suggests the U.S. economy is on the verge of a "Roaring ’20s" revival, with a 50% chance of a booming economic cycle. Key indicators include sustained GDP growth of 2.5% or higher, inflation between 2-3%, and favorable monetary policy conditions. Recent surveys show economists are increasingly optimistic about avoiding a recession in the coming years.
UBS suggests the U.S. economy is nearing a "Roaring '20s" revival, with a 50% chance of a booming cycle driven by strong GDP growth and manageable inflation. Despite concerns over rising unemployment and geopolitical risks, recent economic indicators support a positive outlook for the coming years.
This week’s trade recommendation is to go long on the Volatility Index (VIX), with a stop loss set below the August low at 15.25 and an upside target above 30.00. Recent trading outcomes include a successful long position in New York sugar futures, which saw significant gains. With upcoming Federal Reserve speeches and non-farm payroll data, market volatility is expected to rise, particularly in this presidential election year.
Gold prices are experiencing a pause after a significant rise, with investors focusing on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and US jobs data. Currently, there is a 60% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Fed, while the labor market report anticipates an increase of 142,000 jobs. Investors are eyeing the $2,700 mark, with potential fluctuations influenced by developments in China’s economy.
Jerome Powell
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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